The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) has presented substantial inaccuracies in the FBI’s Active Shooting Reports from 2014 to 2022, particularly in the context of civilian interventions. While the FBI’s data suggests that armed citizens intervened in only 4.6% of active shooter incidents, CPRC’s findings indicate that the actual figure is significantly higher, at least 35.7%. This discrepancy highlights the need for a more accurate representation of civilian involvement in stopping active shooters, which is helpful for informed public discourse and policy-making. Here is the information that supports my opinion.
Inaccuracies in Civilian Intervention Statistics
The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) has identified significant discrepancies in the FBI’s Active Shooting Reports from 2014 to 2022, particularly regarding cases where civilians stopped attacks. While the FBI reported that armed citizens only intervened in 4.6% of active shooter incidents, CPRC’s research reveals that the correct number is at least 35.7%. For 2022, the percentage is even higher, at 41.3%. When excluding gun-free zones, the average is over 63.5%.
Data and Sources
For detailed information, the CPRC provides a PDF and an Excel file listing incidents and links to underlying news stories. FBI Active Shooting reports from 2000 to 2013 and from 2014 to 2022 are available online, with an updated list for 2000 to 2018.
Case Study: Greenwood, Indiana Mall Shooting
On July 17, 2022, a shooting at a Greenwood, Indiana mall garnered national attention when 22-year-old Elisjsha Dicken, armed with a licensed handgun, stopped the attacker. Despite media narratives claiming such interventions are rare, CPRC data shows a higher frequency of civilian interventions.
FBI vs. CPRC Data
- FBI Data: 14 out of 302 active shooter incidents (4.6%)
- CPRC Data: 157 out of 440 active shooter incidents (35.7%)
The CPRC identified two main factors for the discrepancy:
- Misclassified Shootings: The FBI misclassified several incidents where civilians stopped shooters, either by labeling armed civilians as security personnel or by not recognizing civilian intervention.
- Overlooked Incidents: The FBI missed 35 incidents where civilians thwarted potential mass shootings.
Gun-Free Zones
The impact of gun-free zones is also significant. About half of active shooting incidents occur in these zones, where law-abiding citizens are unable to carry firearms, thus reducing the chances of civilian intervention.
Public Perception and Policy
Surveys indicate strong public support for policies allowing concealed carry by civilians. Between 2014 and 2022, civilians stopped 51% of potential or actual mass shootings in areas where guns were allowed. In 2022, this figure was 63.5%.
Conclusion
The FBI’s reports significantly underrepresent the role of armed citizens in stopping active shooter incidents. Correcting these inaccuracies is key for informed public discourse and policy-making.
The CPRC has made detailed datasets and sources available for public review.
Source: Crime Prevention Research Center. “Massive Errors in FBI’s Active Shooting Reports from 2014-2022 Regarding Cases Where Civilians Stop Attacks: Instead of 4.6%, the Correct Number is at Least 35.7%. In 2022, it is at Least 41.3%.” August 31, 2023. Retrieved from https://crimeresearch.org/2023/08/massive-errors-in-fbis-active-shooting-reports-from-2014-2022-regarding-cases-where-civilians-stop-attacks-instead-of-4-6-the-correct-number-is-at-least-35-7-in-2022-it-is-at-least-41-3/?form=MG0AV3